PRODUCTION BUDGET MODEL
Japan Launch · United Arrows Partnership · Run 1
5,000 × 50ml · 10,000 × 10ml
Rate basis: ¥159.60 = $1 · ¥1 = ₩9.39 · $1 ≈ ₩1,499
OUTLIERS & CO · Strictly Confidential
Total production invest.
₩165.5M
of ₩250M budget
Total net revenue · all sold
₩287.4M
≈ ¥1,917,500 retail-side gross
Gross profit · all sold
₩157.3M
After all variable + mold costs
Blended GM %
54.7%
50ml 59.0% · 10ml 45.1%
Budget remaining
₩84.5M
Buffer / Run 2 · 2027
SKU · P&L per unit + total run
Net revenue at 17% of retail · ARTLAB Kyoto baseline: ₩2,249 (50ml) / ₩1,499 (10ml) filling — pending confirmation · See split-supplier scenario below for negotiation lever (3 scents Artlab + 2 scents IFF/Cosmecca)
Eau de Parfum · 50ml
5,000 units · ¥18,000 retail (launch · Phase 1) · Artlab Kyoto baseline
Hero anchor · laddered
Net revenue / unit₩28,764
COGS / unit (Run 1)₩16,369
└ incl. mold amortisation₩2,383
COGS / unit (Run 3+, no mold)₩13,985
Gross profit / unit₩12,395
Gross margin · launch43.1%
Total revenue (5,000 u)₩143.8M
Total COGS₩81.8M
Total gross profit₩62.0M
Post-ladder · Sept 2027 (¥25,000 retail)
Net rev ₩39,919 / u · GP ₩23,549 / u · 59.0% margin · Total GP ₩117.7M @ 5,000 u
Eau de Parfum · 10ml
10,000 units · ¥5,500 retail
Trial single
Net revenue / unit₩8,784
COGS / unit₩4,827
Gross profit / unit₩3,957
Total revenue (10,000 u)₩87.8M
Total COGS₩48.3M
Total gross profit₩39.6M
Production sourcing · split-supplier scenario (negotiation analysis)
Phase 1 plan: 3 scents at Artlab Kyoto (essence + fill, end-to-end) · 2 scents at IFF formula + Cosmecca Korea fill · sourced to benchmark Artlab pricing and build negotiation leverage
50ml unit allocation across 5 EDP SKUs
| SKU |
Sourcing path |
Essence supplier |
Filling supplier |
50ml units |
| Scent 1 (TBD) | Path A — Artlab end-to-end | Artlab Kyoto | Artlab Kyoto | 1,000 |
| Scent 2 (TBD) | Path A — Artlab end-to-end | Artlab Kyoto | Artlab Kyoto | 1,000 |
| Scent 3 (TBD) | Path A — Artlab end-to-end | Artlab Kyoto | Artlab Kyoto | 1,000 |
| Scent 4 (TBD) | Path B — IFF + Cosmecca split | IFF | Cosmecca Korea | 1,000 |
| Scent 5 (TBD) | Path B — IFF + Cosmecca split | IFF | Cosmecca Korea | 1,000 |
| Total Phase 1 (50ml) | 5,000 |
| — of which Path A (Artlab) | 3,000 |
| — of which Path B (IFF + Cosmecca) | 2,000 |
Per-unit COGS comparison · 50ml
| Cost line |
Path A · Artlab end-to-end |
Path B · IFF + Cosmecca |
Δ per unit |
| Fragrance essence | ₩4,500 (Artlab) | ₩4,500 (IFF — placeholder, pending quote) | TBD |
| Bottle + components (pump, cap, collar) | ₩2,440 | ₩2,440 (same Jeong Woo bottle) | — |
| Carton / set box | ₩1,580 | ₩1,580 (same) | — |
| Filling & assembly | ₩2,249 (Artlab, placeholder) | ₩1,500 (Cosmecca @ 5K MOQ)
₩1,690 (Cosmecca @ 3K MOQ) | −₩559 to −₩749 |
| Logistics handling | ₩600 (raw → Japan) | TBD (IFF essence → Korea + finished KR → JP) | TBD |
| Japan labeling & inspection | ₩740 | ₩740 (assumed same) | — |
| MNIF margin (trading) | ₩1,120 | ₩1,120 (if MNIF still routes) | — |
| Mold amortization (Run 1) | ₩2,383 | ₩2,383 (shared mold) | — |
| Other variable lines | ₩757 (balance) | ₩757 (assumed same) | — |
| Total COGS / unit (Run 1) | ₩16,369 | ₩15,620 – ₩15,810 | −₩559 to −₩749 |
| Gross profit / unit @ ¥18,000 launch | ₩12,395 | ₩12,954 – ₩13,144 | +₩559 to +₩749 |
| Gross margin @ ¥18,000 launch | 43.1% | 45.0% – 45.7% | +1.9 – 2.6 pp |
| Gross profit / unit @ ¥25,000 post-ladder | ₩23,549 | ₩24,108 – ₩24,299 | +₩559 to +₩749 |
| Gross margin @ ¥25,000 post-ladder | 59.0% | 60.4% – 60.9% | +1.4 – 1.9 pp |
Path B run economics · 2 IFF/Cosmecca scents × 1,000 units each (2,000 total)
| Item |
@ 3K MOQ tier (₩1,690/u fill) |
@ 5K MOQ tier (₩1,500/u fill) |
| Filling cost (2,000 u) | ₩3.4M | ₩3.0M |
| Savings vs Artlab on these 2 SKUs | ₩1.12M | ₩1.50M |
| Savings vs Artlab — full 5,000 u baseline equivalent | ~₩2.8M (if all 5 SKUs went Path B) | ~₩3.7M (if all 5 SKUs went Path B) |
Cosmecca MOQ note. The CIR2026050035 quote (2026-05-04) prices at ₩1,500/unit for 5K MOQ and ₩1,690/unit for 3K MOQ, cash, ex-VAT. Path B as currently structured allocates 2,000 units (2 scents × 1,000) — below Cosmecca's 3K minimum. Three options to resolve: (a) bundle multiple Cosmecca production runs together to clear MOQ, (b) bump 50ml volume per IFF scent to 2,500 each (pushes Phase 1 total 50ml from 5K to 8K), or (c) accept the 3K-tier rate at ₩1,690/unit with potential setup surcharge on a 2K run. Recommend confirming the surcharge before locking the split.
Artlab Kyoto negotiation lever. Cosmecca Korea's ₩1,500–₩1,690/unit filling rate is 25–33% below Artlab's ₩2,249 placeholder. Target ask to Artlab: match ₩1,800/unit to lock all 5 SKUs end-to-end at Artlab and eliminate the split-supplier coordination overhead (IFF→Korea essence freight, dual QC, two-supplier label compliance, paired CMC documentation). If Artlab declines, Path B remains viable with two additional cost drivers to confirm before locking: (1) IFF→Korea essence freight, (2) finished product Korea→Japan freight delta vs Artlab-Japan internal handling. Net savings on the split path are estimated at ~₩559–₩749 per unit on the 2 IFF SKUs — ~₩1.1M–₩1.5M total on the launch run, before logistics offsets.
Open questions to resolve before committing to Path B:
- IFF essence cost per unit — is it materially different from Artlab's? Get IFF quote for the 2 scents at 1,000-unit run.
- Korea→Japan freight delta for finished product (heavier, more careful) vs current Artlab-Japan internal handoff.
- Cosmecca's setup/surcharge for 2K runs (below their 3K MOQ).
- Whether MNIF (trading partner) still routes Path B product or if Cosmecca delivers direct.
- Dual-line label compliance: same artwork applied at two different facilities — QC overhead.
Production payment schedule
₩250M budget · 6-stage payment cadence · Apr 2026 → Sept 2026 launch
₩0
Production: ₩165.5M (66.2% of budget)
Budget: ₩250M
Apr 10, 2026 · NOW
Mold deposit — 50% (Jeong Woo Cos)
−₩23,650,000
May – Jun 2026
Raw materials order
Fragrance concentrate (IFF · 25kg MOQ per scent) · Bottles (Jeong Woo + Lianxin) · Cartons
~ −₩42.5M
Jun 26, 2026
Mold 2nd payment — 30% (trial complete)
−₩14,190,000
Jul – Aug 2026
Filling & assembly · split supplier
Path A — Artlab Kyoto: 3 scents × 1,000 × 50ml @ ₩2,249/u placeholder · Path B — Cosmecca Korea: 2 scents × 1,000 × 50ml @ ₩1,500–₩1,690/u (CIR2026050035, 2026-05-04, ex-VAT) · 10ml: ₩1,499/u × 10,000 (Artlab placeholder, Cosmecca 10ml quote TBD)
~ −₩26.2M
Aug 2026
Mold final payment — 20% + logistics + labeling
−₩9,460,000 + ~₩18.7M (logistics + labeling)
September 2026 · LAUNCH
Product delivered to UA — sell-through begins
MNIF clears customs · UA begins selling · First settlement ~Oct/Nov (T+1)
Mold investment detail
Capex · 3 payments (50/30/20) · Jeong Woo Cos · Glass + PP overcap + PP outer cover
Mold cost · 1×4 cavity each
Capex
| Component |
ex-VAT |
incl. VAT |
Cavity |
| Glass bottle |
₩12,000,000 |
₩13,200,000 |
1 × 4 |
| PP outer cover |
₩18,000,000 |
₩19,800,000 |
1 × 4 |
| PP overcap |
₩13,000,000 |
₩14,300,000 |
1 × 4 |
| Total mold |
₩43,000,000 |
₩47,300,000 |
— |
Jeong Woo Cos · 50ml component quote
정우코스 견적서 · 2026-04-24 · ₩ ex-VAT · MOQ 10,000
Component-level pricing · per unit
Quoted
| Component |
Material |
₩ / unit |
Notes |
| 용기 · Glass bottle |
Glass |
₩580 |
Post-processing not included |
| 용기 외커버 · Outer cover |
PP |
₩430 |
Cover assembly bundled · matte coating recommended |
| 향수펌프 · Pump (Italian) |
Other |
₩630 |
Chinese pump option ₩450 (−₩180 / unit) |
| 카라 · Collar |
Aluminum |
₩180 |
— |
| 오버캡 · Overcap |
PP |
₩460 |
Weight + gasket assembly bundled · matte coating recommended |
| Total per unit · Italian pump (default) |
— |
₩2,280 |
ex-VAT · ex silk printing · ex glossy coating |
| Total per unit · Chinese pump option |
— |
₩2,100 |
−₩180 / unit savings |
Excluded from this quote — TBC additions
(1) Logo silk printing not included — separate quote pending. (2) Glossy coating not included; supplier instead recommends matte coating (무광코팅) on outer cover + overcap. Final per-unit bottle cost will rise above ₩2,280 once silk + coating are quoted. (3) Bottle & plastics MOQ — strategy committed. Order 10,000 bottles + plastics at MOQ, use 5,000 in Run 1, carry surplus into stock for future production (Run 2). Resolves the bottle MOQ situation through inventory carry rather than negotiation.
New constraint — per-scent print MOQ on plastic housing
Printing the scent name on the plastic housing (외커버 + 오버캡) carries its own MOQ of ~2,000–3,000 pcs per print design. Run 1 plan is 1,000 units / scent (5,000 ÷ 5 scents) — below the print MOQ. Unlike glass bottles, printed plastics are scent-locked once printed, so simple inventory carry only works if printed quantity per scent ≥ MOQ.
Possible paths: (a) print 2,000–3,000 / scent and carry surplus into Run 2 (matches the bottle & plastics inventory strategy above), (b) lift Run 1 to 10,000 50ml units (2,000/scent — meets bottle, plastic-print, and fragrance-concentrate MOQs simultaneously), (c) reduce to 2–3 hero scents at launch with full 5-scent expansion in Run 2, or (d) Jeongwoo-side solutions — consolidated print runs, alternative print methods, or overage acceptance. Jeongwoo is currently sourcing options.
Commercial terms — Jeong Woo Cos
Recipient: (주)아웃라이어스앤코 · 이성준 대표 · Quote date 2026-04-24. Payment terms: 50% deposit on first transaction · 50% before delivery. Currency: ₩, ex-VAT. Pump option requires confirmation before mold trial (June 26 milestone). Mold cavities all 1×4.
GuangDong Lianxin · 10ml component quote
EXW China · MOQ 10,000 pcs · 5-scent split accepted · 22-day lead time post artwork lock
Component-level pricing · per unit
Quoted & locked
| Component |
Material / spec |
₩ / unit |
Notes |
| Glass bottle |
Glass · 10ml |
incl. |
All-in EXW pricing |
| Pump & cap |
Silver finish |
incl. |
Bundled with bottle |
| Black silk printing |
Logo + text |
incl. |
Triggers 22-day lead time on artwork lock |
| White coating (matte / glossy) |
Background finish |
incl. |
Choice between matte & glossy · decision within 1 week |
| Total per unit · all-in EXW China |
— |
₩330 |
Glass + silver pump/cap + black silk + white coating |
Why this is the strong side of the bottle supply
Unlike the 50ml situation, the 10ml MOQ matches Run 1 plan exactly (10,000 units = MOQ floor), and the supplier accepts 5-scent split within the same MOQ — so each scent gets 2,000 units, satisfying both the bottle MOQ and the fragrance-concentrate MOQ (25 kg ≈ 2,000 units / scent) simultaneously. No MOQ negotiation needed on 10ml. Coating finish (matte vs glossy) is the only open decision — it's a brand-look call, not a cost call (both options included in the ₩330 unit price).
Decision & timing required
(1) Coating finish · within 1 week — choose matte or glossy white background for silk-print legibility & brand feel. (2) Final artwork lock — triggers the 22-day lead time. Counting backward from a late-July bottle arrival (for August assembly), artwork must be locked by early July. (3) Logistics window — China → Japan sea freight ~3–4 weeks; book by mid-July to align with August filling at ARTLAB KYOTO.
Complete production cost breakdown
Variable costs by SKU + one-time mold capex · all in KRW
| Item |
50ml × 5,000 |
10ml × 10,000 |
Total |
| Fragrance concentrate |
₩22.5M |
₩9.0M |
₩31.5M |
| Bottle + components (pump, cap, collar) |
₩12.2M |
₩3.3M |
₩15.5M |
| Carton / set box |
₩7.9M |
₩7.5M |
₩15.4M |
| Filling & assembly (ARTLAB KYOTO) |
₩11.2M |
₩15.0M |
₩26.2M |
| Logistics KR → JP (sea freight, DG) |
₩3.0M |
₩3.7M |
₩6.7M |
| Japan labeling & inspection |
₩3.7M |
₩7.5M |
₩11.2M |
| Japan regulatory (amortised) |
₩3.7M |
— |
₩3.7M |
| MNIF margin (trading / import) |
₩5.6M |
₩2.2M |
₩7.9M |
| Subtotal variable |
₩69.9M |
₩48.3M |
₩118.2M |
| Mold capex (one-time) |
₩47.3M |
— |
₩47.3M |
| Total cash out |
₩117.2M |
₩48.3M |
₩165.5M |
Revenue projection · phased sell-through
100% sell-through scenario · UA settles monthly (T+1) · Sep sales paid Oct, Dec sales paid Jan 2027
Settlement convention
UA settles on T+1 (one month after sale). September launch sales arrive in cash October 2026 onward. December sales settle January 2027. The 5-month sell-through window therefore yields four cash receipts spanning Q4 2026 → Q1 2027.
| Month |
Units sold |
Net revenue |
Cash receipt |
| Sep 2026 · launch |
1,000 × 50ml + 2,000 × 10ml |
₩57.5M |
→ Oct |
| Oct 2026 |
1,500 × 50ml + 3,000 × 10ml |
₩86.2M |
→ Nov |
| Nov 2026 |
1,500 × 50ml + 3,000 × 10ml |
₩86.2M |
→ Dec |
| Dec 2026 |
1,000 × 50ml + 2,000 × 10ml |
₩57.5M |
→ Jan ’27 |
| 2026 cash received (3 settlements: Oct + Nov + Dec) |
4,000 × 50ml + 8,000 × 10ml |
₩229.9M |
≈ ₩230M |
| Jan 2027 (Dec ’26 settlement) |
1,000 × 50ml + 2,000 × 10ml |
₩57.5M |
≈ ₩57.5M |
| Grand total · sell-through |
5,000 × 50ml + 10,000 × 10ml |
₩287.4M |
≈ ₩287.4M |
Total net revenue
₩287.4M
Outstanding items before launch
Critical pre-production decisions · pending confirmations · 2027 horizon items
Critical
Artlab Kyoto filling cost negotiation (split-supplier leverage active)
Baseline placeholder: ₩2,249 (50ml) / ₩1,499 (10ml). Cosmecca Korea now quoted at ₩1,500/u (5K MOQ) / ₩1,690/u (3K MOQ) on 50ml — used as negotiation lever. Target Artlab ask: ₩1,800/u for end-to-end production lock-in of all 5 SKUs. If Artlab won't move, execute split-supplier Path B for the 2 IFF-formula scents. Decision needed before mold final payment + IFF concentrate order.
Critical
Distribution & license agreement · UA / MNIF
17% net-revenue structure + UA minimum guarantee must be signed before production commits. Affects revenue recognition and the entire cash-flow projection above.
Critical · 1 week
10ml coating finish — matte or glossy
GuangDong Lianxin requires the matte / glossy white-coating choice within one week to lock artwork. Brand-look call (cost-neutral — both included in ₩330/unit). Locking this triggers the 22-day production lead time. Artwork must be finalised by early July to keep August assembly on schedule.
Critical
50ml plastic housing — per-scent print MOQ
Bottles + plastics MOQ situation resolved by inventory carry (order 10,000, use 5,000 in Run 1, hold the rest for Run 2). New constraint: scent-name silk printing on the plastic housing (외커버 + 오버캡) has its own MOQ of 2,000–3,000 pcs per design. Run 1 (1,000 / scent) falls below — Jeongwoo currently sourcing solutions. Silk-printing & matte / glossy coating final quotes also pending.
Pending
Jeong Woo Cos material & coating spec
PP material grade and surface coating spec must be finalised before mold production starts (deposit already paid Apr 10).
Pending
4th fragrance sample round (Artlab Kyoto)
Final sample required before formal UA submission. READ kuromoji axis + woody backbone tightening; SLEEP & POUR softening.
2027
UA Year 3 minimum volume guarantee
TBD · critical for long-term revenue model and Run 3 (mold-amortised) production planning.
MOQ flag — fragrance concentrate
IFF concentrate batch economics vs Run 1 volume per scent
Decision required before May order
Fragrance concentrate MOQ is 25 kg per scent ≈ 2,000 units per scent. At 5,000 units across 5 scents = 1,000 units per scent — below MOQ.
Three options:
(a) Reduce Run 1 to 2–3 hero scents (e.g., POUR + READ + SLEEP), produce 1,667–2,500 units per scent, lift each to MOQ. Concentrates the launch story but trims the 5-scent breadth.
(b) Produce 2,000 units / scent × 5 scents = 10,000 units (vs planned 5,000) and hold inventory. Doubles 50ml run, adds working capital + warehousing burden.
(c) Negotiate IFF MOQ down — possible given Phase 2 collaboration scope. Lowest-disruption path if achievable.
Decision affects total concentrate cost, inventory carry, and Run 1 / Run 2 cadence.